New Releases Box Office Forecast for 4/21/17

Nothing is quick enough to catch Universal’s Fate of the Furious this weekend, which made $100 million domestically during its opening weekend, and beat out The Force Awakens for highest grossing opening weekend worldwide. It made an astonishing $190 million in China last weekend.

The Fast and Furious franchise is still roaring, even if the signs of the wheels coming off did show at times during Fate of the Furious.

Here’s what to expect from the new openings this weekend:

Unforgettable (R)

Director: Denise Di Novi

Stars: Rosario Dawson, Katherine Heigl, Geoff Stults

In a generally tepid weekend, Unforgettable figures to have the most potential for a decent box office showing, though it has no shot of catching Fate of the Furious, which will lead the grosses this weekend by a wide margin once again.

Unforgettable boasts a pair of talented leading ladies in Rosario Dawson and Katherine Heigl. Dawson plays Julia, who is engaged to David (played by Geoff Stults), and is adjusting to her new life that includes a soon-to-be step-son. Heigl plays the jealous ex-wife who cannot stand to see the pair happy and will stop at nothing to get rid of Julia and get her family back.

The trailer makes it out that Heigl is bringing the right kind of crazy to the role. It will be interesting to see if Denise Di Novi, who is stepping into the director’s chair for the first time, is up to the task. Di Novi has several impressive producer credits to her name (Edward Scissorhands, The Nightmare Before Christmas, Practical Magic), but has never taken the directorial reigns herself for a feature-length film.

At its most pessimistic, I’d say Unforgettable should pull at least what 2014’s Addicted pulled ($7.5 million). It’s most optimistic projection would probably be that of When the Bough Breaks, which pulled in a solid $14 million during its opening weekend last September.

I figure Unforgettable will probably settle somewhere in the middle of that with a $10-11 million opening weekend with a lifetime run around $18-20.

Free Fire (R)

Director: Ben Wheatley

Stars: Sharlto Copley, Brie Larson, Armie Hammer

A24 will look to continue its recent momentum with Free Fire, an ensemble piece set in 1978 Boston where a shootout erupts during a deal gone wrong between rival gangs.

Director Ben Wheatley is at the helm, and while he is a relative unknown, he did make a very good horror thriller with 2011’s The Kill List. If it is still on Netflix, I highly recommend it. The Kill List starts off as a crime drama and then morphs into a horror movie seemingly out of nowhere. It is very well paced and very well done. Color me excited to see Wheatley’s first widely released film.

A24 is still a relatively new studio, but it has busted out some great content in a short period of time, including the Oscar Winner for Best Picture, Moonlight. It’s released several other films that have gotten rave reviews including Room, The Witch, Ex Machina, The Lobster, Green Room, Under the Skin, and American Honey. This is A24’s first wide release of the year, and its reputation alone makes me excited to check this out. The trailer also looks really good, and I’ll watch Brie Larson read a phonebook, so I’m in.

While A24 has produced many critically well-received films, it hasn’t produced anything that has been a big box office success. Even Moonlight only made $27 million over the life of the movie.

The Witch is probably its biggest opening weekend success, and it only brought in $8 million. So, suffice it to say, I don’t expect big box office numbers from Free Fire, even despite the positive reviews that have trickled in so far.

My guess is that Free Fire ends up at around $7 million in its opening weekend, give or take a million or so, depending on how many theatres it actually ends up at.

Born in China (G)

Director: Chuan Lu

Narrators: John Krasinski, Xun Zhou

Born in China is the latest in DisneyNature’s documentary series, and it’s hoping to maximize its profits with its release coinciding with Earth Day on Saturday.

John Krasinski, yes the same guy from The Office, is doing the narrating here. Born in China doesn’t seem to be much of a box office hit, but it should still make some money through the life of the film thanks to the educational value that schools will certainly try to tap into with field trips.

The most recent DisneyNature film to garner a wide box-office release was 2015’s Monkey Kingdom, which netted just a $4.5 million opening, but did end up making $16 million total during its run in theatres.

Here’s thinking that Born in China does a little better than that, but not much. I’d expect it to make around $5 million opening weekend.

Phoenix Forgotten (PG-13)

Director: Justin Barber

Stars: Florence Hartigan, Luke Spencer Roberts, Chelsea Lopez

Many have tried, and most have failed, to copy The Blair Witch Project’s formula over the years. This appears to be a blatant rip-off, though.

Does three teenagers disappearing under mysterious circumstances years ago, and then their footage being found sound all too familiar?

Phoenix Forgotten isn’t shying away from its Blair Witch connections, and is even being billed as The Blair Witch Project with aliens. Unfortunately, it won’t have near the same success as The Blair Witch Project. The Blair Witch Project succeeded because it was different; it was new, and nobody had done anything like it before. Phoenix Forgotten is trying to live vicariously through that, and nobody is fooled.

This is the directorial debut for Justin Barber, and he regrettably has a dud on his hands.

I don’t see this movie making any more than $3 million this weekend, with a very short run in theatres.

The Promise (PG-13)

Director: Terry George

Stars: Christian Bale, Oscar Isaac, Charlotte Le Bon

With the cast and director, The Promise looked promising (I’m sorry) at first glance. But tracking has been poor as well have initial reviews.

The movie is about a love triangle set during the fall of the Ottoman Empire. Michael (Isaac), a bright young medical student falls in love with Anna (Le Bon), but Anna is already with Chris (Bale), an American journalist.

Director Terry George has been nominated for three Oscars, and won one for Best Short Film in 2012. He got writing nominations for his work on 2004’s Hotel Rwanda (which he also directed), and for 1993’s In the Name of the Father.

Unfortunately for George, this doesn’t seem to be on either of those film’s level. With the poor tracking and reviews, don’t expect much from The Promise this weekend.

I’d put it right alongside Phoenix Forgotten at a $3 million opening.

If you’re looking for something to see this weekend, my money would go toward Free Fire, which looks like the best of the lot.